College Football Odds: BYU over/under win total prediction

BYU is heading into its first year in the new Big 12, as they hope to continue their winning ways against some new foes. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a BYU football over/under win total prediction and pick.

Last year under Kalani Sitake, BYU went 8-5 as an independent, with seven wins in the regular season and a bowl victory over SMU to finish off the season. One of those wins came against current Big 12 Foe Baylor in week two, as the Cougars won 26-20. BYU lost a lot from that eight-win team though. They will need to replace their quarterback, top receiver, and top running back. Kedon Slovis arrived from Pitt to attempt to rejuvenate his career. Slovis was solid as a freshman at USC but has not been the same since. At running back, Aidan Robbins comes in from UNLV, and Miles Davis will get a chance to win the job. Puka Nacua will be tough to replace, but Kenau Hill and Kody Epps should be able to replace him some, as they combined for 1000 yards last year.

On defense, it is less about replacing stars and more about adjusting to a new defensive scheme. Jay Hill comes in after spending nine years as the head coach of Weber State. He is much more aggressive than his predecessor and learned under Kyle Whittingham. The new defense will look to get pressure on the quarterback and create more turnovers than last year.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Over 4.5 wins: -188

Under 4.5 wins: +152

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BYU needs to get just five wins to hit the over on their win total and the start of the season provides plenty of opportunity to get those wins. First is a game against Sam Houston. Sam Houston was a quality FCS program last year and making the FBS jump this year. Still, their talent level is not good enough to compete in this game, and BYU will start the season with a win. The Cougars will also be heavy favorites the next week against Southern Utah before having to travel to Arkansas. They will be facing a top quarterback in KJ Jefferson, who will make light work of this new defense. Still, the Cougars will go into conference play at 2-1.

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The Big 12 schedule lines up well for the Cougars. They travel to Kansas, TCU, Texas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. TCU and Texas will both be heavily favored in those games. While TCU is replacing a lot of players but has parts to help ensure it is not a complete falloff for them. Texas will be favored to win the conference this year and will take care of BYU.

The other three games could produce two wins. Kansas will be the toughest of the group. Jalon Daniels was playing his way into the Heisman conversation before getting hurt. He will be back in this game and looking to make noise. West Virginia could have a situation where they have fired their coach or are about to when they head into this game. Oklahoma State is preparing for their worst year under Gundy, and they do not have a competent quarterback it seems.

The home schedule also provides opportunities for wins. They will host Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. Again, two wins are obtainable here. Most likely Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be losses. Cincinnati may be in the worst spot of the new Big 12 clubs. They lost their coach and a lot of playmakers. Iowa State could also provide a win. The offense is not going to be that good, and neither will the defense.

It would take eight losses for BYU to not make it to five wins. First, that starts with an upset in non-conference plays. Southern Utah will not be that upset, but Sam Houston State could be. The Cougars could be starting double-digit transfers going into the season and it takes time for a team like that to gel. Sam Houston will not have that problem, ranking 29th in returning production.

Colin Gallant · 5 months ago

Colin Gallant · 5 months ago

Griffin Conant · 5 months ago

Then it requires four losses in the road games in conference play. TCU, Texas, and Kansas can all be lost, and most likely will. West Virginia is interesting though. If Neal Brown has things going well, they could be fighting for a bowl game, and Brown to keep his job. WVU returns a lot of production, ranking in the top half of college football. They get the win, and that gives BYU six losses.

Then there need to be two losses at home in conference play. Texas Tech will be one of them, and Brent Venables should have Oklahoma rolling by the time they play BYU. That gives them two right there and eight on the season. There is also the chance that Iowa State pulls an upset, but that would just be an insult to injury.

BYU will go 2-1 in non-conference play this year. They will lose to TCU, Texas, and Kansas all on the road, but beat West Virginia and Oklahoma State to get to four wins. They will also take care of business against Iowa State and finish their season 5-7.

Final BYU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 4.5 win (-188)